* PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL012015 05/10/15 18 UTC * * DSHP * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) DSHP 28 27 31 34 36 39 42 44 44 45 V (KT) DSHP_BC 29 31 35 39 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 3 5 6 8 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 8 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 BIAS PREDICTORS: ENS STDV (KT) 1.3 2.2 6.3 11.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 INIT 200MB DIV -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 INIT DTL (NMI) -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 ENSMN V (KT) 0.3 -0.8 -1.3 -0.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 34.7 35.4 36.0 36.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 V (KT) DSHP 28.0 27.0 31.0 34.0 36.0 39.0 42.0 44.0 44.0 45.0 ENSMN V (KT) 0.3 -0.8 -1.3 -0.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STDV (KT) 1.3 2.2 6.3 11.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL012015 05/10/15 18 UTC * * LGEM * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) LGEM 28 27 31 33 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 V (KT) LGEM_BC 27 28 34 38 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 3 5 6 8 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (NMI) -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 T=0 V (KT) LGEM 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 V (KT) LGEM 28.0 27.0 31.0 33.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) 0.3 -0.8 -1.3 -1.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 34.7 35.4 36.0 36.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STDV (KT) 1.3 2.2 6.3 11.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) 0.3 -0.8 -1.3 -1.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL012015 05/10/15 18 UTC * * GHMI * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) GHMI 29 31 41 50 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 V (KT) GHMI_BC 28 28 33 37 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 4 5 9 11 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 8 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 BIAS PREDICTORS: T=0 V (KT) GHMI 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 V (KT) GHMI 29.0 31.0 41.0 50.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) 1.3 3.3 8.8 15.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: VMX CHANGE (KT) -1.0 1.0 11.0 20.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 INIT LAT (N) 34.1 34.1 34.1 34.1 34.1 34.1 34.1 34.1 34.1 34.1 ENS STDV (KT) 1.3 2.2 6.3 11.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG LAT (N) 34.7 35.4 36.0 36.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) 1.3 3.3 8.8 15.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL012015 05/10/15 18 UTC * * HWFI * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) HWFI 26 26 26 22 20 20 22 30 37 45 V (KT) HWFI_BC 27 26 29 27 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 3 3 4 4 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 8 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (NMI) -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 AVG LAT (N) 34.7 35.4 36.0 36.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) -1.8 -1.8 -6.3 -12.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 34.7 35.4 36.0 36.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG MPI (KT) 80.7 76.0 74.7 73.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 STDEV BT (C) -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 VMX CHANGE (KT) -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 -8.0 -10.0 -10.0 -8.0 0.0 7.0 15.0 T=0 V (KT) HWFI 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 V (KT) HWFI 26.0 26.0 26.0 22.0 20.0 20.0 22.0 30.0 37.0 45.0 ENSMN V (KT) -1.8 -1.8 -6.3 -12.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * Corrected Consensus * ICON (KT) 27.8 27.8 32.2 34.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CCON (KT) 27.5 27.2 29.7 29.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9