* PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL022015 06/17/15 06 UTC * * DSHP * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) DSHP 28 27 27 27 27 28 28 29 29 29 V (KT) DSHP_BC 28 28 28 29 30 30 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 3 5 6 6 7 7 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 8 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 BIAS PREDICTORS: ENS STDV (KT) 1.0 1.0 1.4 0.5 2.2 4.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 INIT 200MB DIV 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 INIT DTL (NMI) -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 ENSMN V (KT) 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.3 -0.8 0.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 31.5 32.5 33.1 33.5 34.0 34.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 V (KT) DSHP 28.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 28.0 28.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 ENSMN V (KT) 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.3 -0.8 0.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STDV (KT) 1.0 1.0 1.4 0.5 2.2 4.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL022015 06/17/15 06 UTC * * LGEM * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) LGEM 28 27 27 27 27 28 -999 -999 -999 -999 V (KT) LGEM_BC 27 26 26 29 33 34 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 4 5 6 6 6 6 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (NMI) -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 T=0 V (KT) LGEM 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 V (KT) LGEM 28.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 28.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.3 -0.8 0.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 31.5 32.5 33.1 33.5 34.0 34.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STDV (KT) 1.0 1.0 1.4 0.5 2.2 4.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.3 -0.8 0.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL022015 06/17/15 06 UTC * * GHMI * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) GHMI 28 26 26 27 31 33 31 33 40 46 V (KT) GHMI_BC 27 26 26 28 32 34 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 4 5 5 5 6 7 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 8 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 BIAS PREDICTORS: T=0 V (KT) GHMI 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 V (KT) GHMI 28.0 26.0 26.0 27.0 31.0 33.0 31.0 33.0 40.0 46.0 ENSMN V (KT) 0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.3 3.3 5.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: VMX CHANGE (KT) -2.0 -4.0 -4.0 -3.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 3.0 10.0 16.0 INIT LAT (N) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 ENS STDV (KT) 1.0 1.0 1.4 0.5 2.2 4.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG LAT (N) 31.5 32.5 33.1 33.5 34.0 34.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) 0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.3 3.3 5.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL022015 06/17/15 06 UTC * * HWFI * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) HWFI 26 25 24 26 26 22 24 28 34 36 V (KT) HWFI_BC 27 25 24 24 24 22 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 3 3 3 4 5 7 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 8 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (NMI) -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 -216.0 AVG LAT (N) 31.5 32.5 33.1 33.5 34.0 34.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) -1.5 -1.3 -2.0 -0.8 -1.8 -5.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 31.5 32.5 33.1 33.5 34.0 34.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG MPI (KT) 111.7 101.0 97.3 94.7 92.4 90.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 STDEV BT (C) 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 VMX CHANGE (KT) -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 -4.0 -4.0 -8.0 -6.0 -2.0 4.0 6.0 T=0 V (KT) HWFI 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 V (KT) HWFI 26.0 25.0 24.0 26.0 26.0 22.0 24.0 28.0 34.0 36.0 ENSMN V (KT) -1.5 -1.3 -2.0 -0.8 -1.8 -5.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * Corrected Consensus * ICON (KT) 27.5 26.2 26.0 26.8 27.8 27.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CCON (KT) 27.3 25.9 25.4 26.6 27.6 27.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9