* PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL052015 08/29/15 12 UTC * * DSHP * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) DSHP 27 27 33 36 45 46 38 30 28 27 V (KT) DSHP_BC 29 26 27 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 4 8 10 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 8 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 BIAS PREDICTORS: ENS STDV (KT) 1.3 7.8 16.7 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 INIT 200MB DIV 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 INIT DTL (NMI) 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 ENSMN V (KT) -0.5 0.8 5.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 22.3 23.2 23.8 24.4 24.9 25.4 25.9 26.5 27.0 27.5 V (KT) DSHP 27.0 27.0 33.0 36.0 45.0 46.0 38.0 30.0 28.0 27.0 ENSMN V (KT) -0.5 0.8 5.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STDV (KT) 1.3 7.8 16.7 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL052015 08/29/15 12 UTC * * LGEM * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) LGEM 26 25 27 29 32 36 32 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM_BC 27 26 29 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 4 6 9 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (NMI) 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 T=0 V (KT) LGEM 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 V (KT) LGEM 26.0 25.0 27.0 29.0 32.0 36.0 32.0 28.0 27.0 27.0 ENSMN V (KT) -1.5 -1.3 -1.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 22.3 23.2 23.8 24.4 24.9 25.4 25.9 26.5 27.0 27.5 ENS STDV (KT) 1.3 7.8 16.7 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) -1.5 -1.3 -1.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL052015 08/29/15 12 UTC * * GHMI * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) GHMI 28 36 46 54 64 62 40 24 26 23 V (KT) GHMI_BC 27 27 29 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 4 9 16 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 8 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 BIAS PREDICTORS: T=0 V (KT) GHMI 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 V (KT) GHMI 28.0 36.0 46.0 54.0 64.0 62.0 40.0 24.0 26.0 23.0 ENSMN V (KT) 0.5 9.8 18.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: VMX CHANGE (KT) -2.0 6.0 16.0 24.0 34.0 32.0 10.0 -6.0 -4.0 -7.0 INIT LAT (N) 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 ENS STDV (KT) 1.3 7.8 16.7 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG LAT (N) 22.3 23.2 23.8 24.4 24.9 25.4 25.9 26.5 27.0 27.5 ENSMN V (KT) 0.5 9.8 18.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL052015 08/29/15 12 UTC * * HWFI * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) HWFI 29 17 6 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 V (KT) HWFI_BC 28 22 20 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 4 5 8 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 8 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (NMI) 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 AVG LAT (N) 22.3 23.2 23.8 24.4 24.9 25.4 25.9 26.5 27.0 27.5 ENSMN V (KT) 1.5 -9.3 -22.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 22.3 23.2 23.8 24.4 24.9 25.4 25.9 26.5 27.0 27.5 AVG MPI (KT) 171.3 171.8 171.7 171.3 171.0 170.8 170.2 168.2 165.7 163.5 STDEV BT (C) 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 VMX CHANGE (KT) -1.0 -13.0 -24.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 T=0 V (KT) HWFI 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 V (KT) HWFI 29.0 17.0 6.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) 1.5 -9.3 -22.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * Corrected Consensus * ICON (KT) 27.5 26.2 28.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CCON (KT) 27.6 23.5 22.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9