* PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL062015 09/06/15 18 UTC * * DSHP * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) DSHP 27 30 35 39 44 45 45 46 47 50 V (KT) DSHP_BC 23 25 32 37 37 41 46 54 62 65 AERR (KT) PRED 4 7 8 8 10 11 10 9 9 9 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 8 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 BIAS PREDICTORS: ENS STDV (KT) 2.1 5.7 11.2 9.1 7.9 8.6 9.1 10.2 9.8 12.3 INIT 200MB DIV 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 INIT DTL (NMI) 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 ENSMN V (KT) 2.5 3.0 3.0 5.8 10.5 10.8 8.5 8.5 9.0 10.3 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 27.0 27.8 28.3 28.8 29.3 29.7 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.4 V (KT) DSHP 27.0 30.0 35.0 39.0 44.0 45.0 45.0 46.0 47.0 50.0 ENSMN V (KT) 2.5 3.0 3.0 5.8 10.5 10.8 8.5 8.5 9.0 10.3 ENS STDV (KT) 2.1 5.7 11.2 9.1 7.9 8.6 9.1 10.2 9.8 12.3 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL062015 09/06/15 18 UTC * * LGEM * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) LGEM 24 25 27 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 V (KT) LGEM_BC 24 29 37 42 45 48 53 60 68 71 AERR (KT) PRED 4 6 9 9 9 7 7 7 7 7 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (NMI) 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 T=0 V (KT) LGEM 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 V (KT) LGEM 24.0 25.0 27.0 30.0 32.0 34.0 36.0 38.0 40.0 42.0 ENSMN V (KT) -0.5 -2.0 -5.0 -3.3 -1.5 -0.3 -0.5 0.5 2.0 2.3 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 27.0 27.8 28.3 28.8 29.3 29.7 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.4 ENS STDV (KT) 2.1 5.7 11.2 9.1 7.9 8.6 9.1 10.2 9.8 12.3 ENSMN V (KT) -0.5 -2.0 -5.0 -3.3 -1.5 -0.3 -0.5 0.5 2.0 2.3 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL062015 09/06/15 18 UTC * * GHMI * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) GHMI 25 33 46 42 33 34 41 43 41 45 V (KT) GHMI_BC 25 29 34 37 38 40 43 44 44 46 AERR (KT) PRED 4 7 14 10 8 7 7 8 8 7 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 8 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 BIAS PREDICTORS: T=0 V (KT) GHMI 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 V (KT) GHMI 25.0 33.0 46.0 42.0 33.0 34.0 41.0 43.0 41.0 45.0 ENSMN V (KT) 0.5 6.0 14.0 8.8 -0.5 -0.3 4.5 5.5 3.0 5.3 AERR PREDICTORS: VMX CHANGE (KT) 0.0 8.0 21.0 17.0 8.0 9.0 16.0 18.0 16.0 20.0 INIT LAT (N) 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 ENS STDV (KT) 2.1 5.7 11.2 9.1 7.9 8.6 9.1 10.2 9.8 12.3 AVG LAT (N) 27.0 27.8 28.3 28.8 29.3 29.7 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.4 ENSMN V (KT) 0.5 6.0 14.0 8.8 -0.5 -0.3 4.5 5.5 3.0 5.3 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL062015 09/06/15 18 UTC * * HWFI * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) HWFI 22 20 20 22 25 24 24 23 24 22 V (KT) HWFI_BC 25 26 29 31 34 37 40 42 43 43 AERR (KT) PRED 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 10 11 15 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 8 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (NMI) 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 2471.0 AVG LAT (N) 27.0 27.8 28.3 28.8 29.3 29.7 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.4 ENSMN V (KT) -2.5 -7.0 -12.0 -11.3 -8.5 -10.3 -12.5 -14.5 -14.0 -17.8 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 27.0 27.8 28.3 28.8 29.3 29.7 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.4 AVG MPI (KT) 134.0 132.2 130.5 128.7 127.0 125.6 124.4 123.3 122.3 121.8 STDEV BT (C) 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 VMX CHANGE (KT) -3.0 -5.0 -5.0 -3.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 T=0 V (KT) HWFI 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 V (KT) HWFI 22.0 20.0 20.0 22.0 25.0 24.0 24.0 23.0 24.0 22.0 ENSMN V (KT) -2.5 -7.0 -12.0 -11.3 -8.5 -10.3 -12.5 -14.5 -14.0 -17.8 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * Corrected Consensus * ICON (KT) 24.5 27.0 32.0 33.2 33.5 34.2 36.5 37.5 38.0 39.8 CCON (KT) 24.0 24.7 27.1 31.0 31.9 33.7 37.2 38.3 39.2 43.0