* PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL072015 09/09/15 12 UTC * * DSHP * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) DSHP 22 20 21 22 24 24 26 31 36 39 V (KT) DSHP_BC 27 28 28 27 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 6 10 11 12 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 8 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 BIAS PREDICTORS: ENS STDV (KT) 2.9 4.3 4.4 5.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 INIT 200MB DIV -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 INIT DTL (NMI) 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 ENSMN V (KT) -2.3 -3.8 -2.8 -2.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.1 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 V (KT) DSHP 22.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 24.0 24.0 26.0 31.0 36.0 39.0 ENSMN V (KT) -2.3 -3.8 -2.8 -2.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STDV (KT) 2.9 4.3 4.4 5.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL072015 09/09/15 12 UTC * * LGEM * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) LGEM 22 20 19 18 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 V (KT) LGEM_BC 25 25 25 26 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 5 8 10 12 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (NMI) 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 T=0 V (KT) LGEM 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 V (KT) LGEM 22.0 20.0 19.0 18.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) -2.3 -3.8 -4.8 -6.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.1 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STDV (KT) 2.9 4.3 4.4 5.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) -2.3 -3.8 -4.8 -6.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL072015 09/09/15 12 UTC * * GHMI * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) GHMI 25 27 27 27 27 32 37 32 28 32 V (KT) GHMI_BC 25 25 24 26 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 5 7 8 9 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 8 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 BIAS PREDICTORS: T=0 V (KT) GHMI 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 V (KT) GHMI 25.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 32.0 37.0 32.0 28.0 32.0 ENSMN V (KT) 0.8 3.3 3.3 3.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: VMX CHANGE (KT) 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 7.0 12.0 7.0 3.0 7.0 INIT LAT (N) 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 ENS STDV (KT) 2.9 4.3 4.4 5.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG LAT (N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.1 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) 0.8 3.3 3.3 3.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL072015 09/09/15 12 UTC * * HWFI * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) HWFI 28 28 28 29 26 24 25 26 -999 -999 V (KT) HWFI_BC 26 26 27 29 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 4 5 6 7 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 8 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (NMI) 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 1144.0 AVG LAT (N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.1 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) 3.8 4.3 4.3 5.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.1 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG MPI (KT) 141.3 143.6 145.7 146.6 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 STDEV BT (C) 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 VMX CHANGE (KT) 3.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 -999.9 -999.9 T=0 V (KT) HWFI 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 V (KT) HWFI 28.0 28.0 28.0 29.0 26.0 24.0 25.0 26.0 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) 3.8 4.3 4.3 5.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * Corrected Consensus * ICON (KT) 24.2 23.8 23.8 24.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CCON (KT) 24.8 25.3 25.5 25.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9