* PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL112015 10/07/15 06 UTC * * DSHP * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) DSHP 57 43 27 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 V (KT) DSHP_BC 59 50 39 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 3 5 8 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 8 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 BIAS PREDICTORS: ENS STDV (KT) 1.0 2.9 6.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 INIT 200MB DIV 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 INIT DTL (NMI) 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 ENSMN V (KT) -0.5 -3.8 -9.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 40.8 41.4 41.8 42.3 42.5 42.6 42.6 42.6-5982.6-6347.7 V (KT) DSHP 57.0 43.0 27.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) -0.5 -3.8 -9.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STDV (KT) 1.0 2.9 6.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL112015 10/07/15 06 UTC * * LGEM * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) LGEM 57 46 35 28 24 21 19 18 -999 -999 V (KT) LGEM_BC 57 43 32 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 3 5 6 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (NMI) 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 T=0 V (KT) LGEM 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 V (KT) LGEM 57.0 46.0 35.0 28.0 24.0 21.0 19.0 18.0 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 40.8 41.4 41.8 42.3 42.5 42.6 42.6 42.6-5982.6-6347.7 ENS STDV (KT) 1.0 2.9 6.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL112015 10/07/15 06 UTC * * GHMI * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) GHMI 57 49 39 34 32 30 27 -999 -999 -999 V (KT) GHMI_BC 57 44 32 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 3 4 5 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 8 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 BIAS PREDICTORS: T=0 V (KT) GHMI 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 V (KT) GHMI 57.0 49.0 39.0 34.0 32.0 30.0 27.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) -0.5 2.3 3.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: VMX CHANGE (KT) -8.0 -16.0 -26.0 -31.0 -33.0 -35.0 -38.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 INIT LAT (N) 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 ENS STDV (KT) 1.0 2.9 6.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG LAT (N) 40.8 41.4 41.8 42.3 42.5 42.6 42.6 42.6-5982.6-6347.7 ENSMN V (KT) -0.5 2.3 3.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL112015 10/07/15 06 UTC * * HWFI * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) HWFI 59 49 43 41 37 32 30 31 34 31 V (KT) HWFI_BC 58 47 38 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 3 4 5 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 8 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (NMI) 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 736.0 AVG LAT (N) 40.8 41.4 41.8 42.3 42.5 42.6 42.6 42.6-5982.6-6347.7 ENSMN V (KT) 1.5 2.3 7.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 40.8 41.4 41.8 42.3 42.5 42.6 42.6 42.6-5982.6-6347.7 AVG MPI (KT) 99.3 93.8 91.2 88.7 86.9 85.4 84.3 83.2 -999.9 -999.9 STDEV BT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 VMX CHANGE (KT) -6.0 -16.0 -22.0 -24.0 -28.0 -33.0 -35.0 -34.0 -31.0 -34.0 T=0 V (KT) HWFI 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 V (KT) HWFI 59.0 49.0 43.0 41.0 37.0 32.0 30.0 31.0 34.0 31.0 ENSMN V (KT) 1.5 2.3 7.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * Corrected Consensus * ICON (KT) 57.5 46.8 36.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CCON (KT) 57.5 47.1 38.1 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9