* PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL122015 11/11/15 18 UTC * * DSHP * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) DSHP 63 62 57 56 55 49 40 31 23 16 V (KT) DSHP_BC 64 56 48 47 48 48 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 4 7 8 8 7 5 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 8 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 BIAS PREDICTORS: ENS STDV (KT) 5.6 5.4 6.8 7.5 5.7 3.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 INIT 200MB DIV 155.0 155.0 155.0 155.0 155.0 155.0 155.0 155.0 155.0 155.0 INIT DTL (NMI) 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 ENSMN V (KT) 0.5 6.8 9.3 9.5 7.0 1.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 38.9 39.8 40.2 40.6 41.3 42.4 43.6 44.9 -999.9 -999.9 V (KT) DSHP 63.0 62.0 57.0 56.0 55.0 49.0 40.0 31.0 23.0 16.0 ENSMN V (KT) 0.5 6.8 9.3 9.5 7.0 1.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STDV (KT) 5.6 5.4 6.8 7.5 5.7 3.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL122015 11/11/15 18 UTC * * LGEM * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) LGEM 60 50 41 40 45 48 48 45 -999 -999 V (KT) LGEM_BC 63 56 47 46 47 45 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 5 7 8 7 6 4 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (NMI) 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 T=0 V (KT) LGEM 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 V (KT) LGEM 60.0 50.0 41.0 40.0 45.0 48.0 48.0 45.0 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) -2.5 -5.3 -6.8 -6.5 -3.0 0.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 38.9 39.8 40.2 40.6 41.3 42.4 43.6 44.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STDV (KT) 5.6 5.4 6.8 7.5 5.7 3.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) -2.5 -5.3 -6.8 -6.5 -3.0 0.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL122015 11/11/15 18 UTC * * GHMI * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) GHMI 70 57 48 49 50 51 51 -999 -999 -999 V (KT) GHMI_BC 63 54 46 45 48 48 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 6 5 4 5 5 5 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 8 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 BIAS PREDICTORS: T=0 V (KT) GHMI 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 V (KT) GHMI 70.0 57.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 51.0 51.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) 7.5 1.8 0.3 2.5 2.0 3.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: VMX CHANGE (KT) 5.0 -8.0 -17.0 -16.0 -15.0 -14.0 -14.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 INIT LAT (N) 37.6 37.6 37.6 37.6 37.6 37.6 37.6 37.6 37.6 37.6 ENS STDV (KT) 5.6 5.4 6.8 7.5 5.7 3.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG LAT (N) 38.9 39.8 40.2 40.6 41.3 42.4 43.6 44.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) 7.5 1.8 0.3 2.5 2.0 3.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL122015 11/11/15 18 UTC * * HWFI * TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) HWFI 57 52 45 41 42 43 -999 -999 -999 -999 V (KT) HWFI_BC 61 54 46 43 44 44 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) PRED 5 5 5 5 5 4 -999 -999 -999 -999 AERR (KT) CLIM 5 7 8 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (NMI) 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 880.0 AVG LAT (N) 38.9 39.8 40.2 40.6 41.3 42.4 43.6 44.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) -5.5 -3.3 -2.8 -5.5 -6.0 -4.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 38.9 39.8 40.2 40.6 41.3 42.4 43.6 44.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG MPI (KT) 105.0 96.0 93.5 91.4 89.4 87.4 85.7 84.1 -999.9 -999.9 STDEV BT (C) -9.4 -9.4 -9.4 -9.4 -9.4 -9.4 -9.4 -9.4 -9.4 -9.4 VMX CHANGE (KT) -8.0 -13.0 -20.0 -24.0 -23.0 -22.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 T=0 V (KT) HWFI 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 V (KT) HWFI 57.0 52.0 45.0 41.0 42.0 43.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENSMN V (KT) -5.5 -3.3 -2.8 -5.5 -6.0 -4.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * Corrected Consensus * ICON (KT) 62.5 55.2 47.8 46.5 48.0 47.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CCON (KT) 61.8 54.7 47.3 45.7 47.2 47.6 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9