* PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL022016 06/05/16 00 UTC * * DSHP * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 DSHP VMAX (KT) 28.0 27.0 27.0 25.0 22.0 19.0 16.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DSHP VMAX BC (KT) 28.9 28.0 28.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED DSHP AERR (KT) 2.8 3.7 4.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM DSHP AERR (KT) 5.3 7.9 9.7 11.3 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.5 14.8 14.5 PRED DSHP BIAS (KT) -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM DSHP BIAS (KT) -0.3 0.8 2.0 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.2 2.3 0.6 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG DTL (KM) 1011.3 1104.6 1176.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 INIT VMAX (KT) DSHP 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 IR PIX T < -20C (%) -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 INIT MIDLEV RH (%) 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 P12H VMAX CHNGE (KT) -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 INIT MPI (KT) 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 INIT OHC (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 INIT SHEAR DIR (DEG) -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 AVG MIDLEV RH (%) 51.3 48.8 47.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG VSHEAR (KT) 31.7 30.4 30.2 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 FORECAST DTL (KM) 1090.0 1301.0 1533.0 1533.0 1533.0 1533.0 1533.0 1533.0 1533.0 1533.0 FCST VMAX CHNGE (KT) -2.0 -3.0 -3.0 -5.0 -8.0 -11.0 -14.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG OHC (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 AVG MPI (KT) 90.0 91.2 91.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 INIT LAT (N) 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 AVG LAT (N) 34.6 34.3 34.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9-5499.5-6999.3-7749.2 FCST VMAX (KT) DSHP 28.0 27.0 27.0 25.0 22.0 19.0 16.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -0.3 -0.3 -1.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STD DEV (KT) 1.0 1.7 2.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -0.3 -0.3 -1.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL022016 06/05/16 00 UTC * * LGEM * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 LGEM VMAX (KT) 27.0 25.0 25.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 LGEM VMAX BC (KT) 29.0 28.3 28.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED LGEM AERR (KT) 3.9 5.6 7.1 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM LGEM AERR (KT) 5.1 7.5 9.4 10.8 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.1 13.6 PRED LGEM BIAS (KT) -2.0 -3.3 -3.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM LGEM BIAS (KT) -0.8 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.1 AERR PREDICTORS: INIT LAT (N) 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 AVG LAT (N) 34.6 34.3 34.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9-5499.5-6999.3-7749.2 FCST VMAX CHNGE (KT) -3.0 -5.0 -5.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STD DEV (KT) 1.0 1.7 2.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -1.3 -2.3 -3.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -1.3 -2.3 -3.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL022016 06/05/16 00 UTC * * GHMI * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 GHMI VMAX (KT) 29.0 29.0 30.0 29.0 31.0 28.0 26.0 23.0 -999.9 -999.9 GHMI VMAX BC (KT) 28.8 27.8 27.7 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED GHMI AERR (KT) 3.7 5.4 6.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM GHMI AERR (KT) 5.7 8.3 10.4 11.6 12.2 14.0 14.9 16.2 16.7 17.4 PRED GHMI BIAS (KT) 0.2 1.2 2.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM GHMI BIAS (KT) -0.6 -1.8 -1.7 0.4 2.6 4.9 7.2 8.6 10.3 12.2 AERR PREDICTORS: FCST VMAX (KT) GHMI 29.0 29.0 30.0 29.0 31.0 28.0 26.0 23.0 -999.9 -999.9 FCST VMAX CHNGE (KT) -1.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 1.0 -2.0 -4.0 -7.0 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STD DEV (KT) 1.0 1.7 2.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 0.8 1.8 2.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 0.8 1.8 2.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL022016 06/05/16 00 UTC * * HWFI * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 HWFI VMAX (KT) 29.0 28.0 30.0 27.0 24.0 21.0 20.0 18.0 15.0 -999.9 HWFI VMAX BC (KT) 29.0 28.0 28.2 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED HWFI AERR (KT) 3.0 4.2 5.2 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM HWFI AERR (KT) 5.3 7.6 9.4 10.5 11.9 13.3 14.0 15.5 17.0 17.7 PRED HWFI BIAS (KT) 0.0 0.0 1.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM HWFI BIAS (KT) -0.6 -0.7 0.4 1.9 3.4 4.4 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.7 AERR PREDICTORS: FCST VMAX CHNGE (KT) -1.0 -2.0 0.0 -3.0 -6.0 -9.0 -10.0 -12.0 -15.0 -999.9 ENS STD DEV (KT) 1.0 1.7 2.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG MPI (KT) 90.0 91.2 91.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 FCST VMAX (KT) HWFI 29.0 28.0 30.0 27.0 24.0 21.0 20.0 18.0 15.0 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 0.8 0.8 2.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 0.8 0.8 2.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * Corrected Consensus * ICON (KT) 28.2 27.2 28.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CCON (KT) 28.3 27.3 28.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 OBSERVED VMAX (KT) -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9