* PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL112016 09/19/16 00 UTC * * DSHP * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 DSHP VMAX (KT) 28.0 30.0 28.0 27.0 27.0 28.0 28.0 27.0 27.0 26.0 DSHP VMAX BC (KT) 26.3 29.4 30.3 26.1 23.6 25.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED DSHP AERR (KT) 4.0 4.8 5.7 5.2 5.8 6.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM DSHP AERR (KT) 5.3 7.9 9.7 11.3 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.5 14.8 14.5 PRED DSHP BIAS (KT) 1.7 0.6 -2.3 0.9 3.4 2.1 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM DSHP BIAS (KT) -0.3 0.8 2.0 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.2 2.3 0.6 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG DTL (KM) 107.7 70.4 54.7 41.1 31.5 29.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 INIT VMAX (KT) DSHP 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 IR PIX T < -20C (%) -62.0 -62.0 -62.0 -62.0 -62.0 -62.0 -62.0 -62.0 -62.0 -62.0 INIT MIDLEV RH (%) 61.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 P12H VMAX CHNGE (KT) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 INIT MPI (KT) 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 INIT OHC (C) 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 INIT SHEAR DIR (DEG) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 AVG MIDLEV RH (%) 60.7 58.4 57.0 55.9 55.1 54.1 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG VSHEAR (KT) 15.3 17.8 18.0 19.0 19.9 21.6 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 FORECAST DTL (KM) 66.0 0.0 -24.0 -40.0 -36.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 FCST VMAX CHNGE (KT) 3.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 AVG OHC (C) 7.3 5.8 8.0 9.4 10.8 10.4 9.4 8.5 7.8 7.2 AVG MPI (KT) 137.0 134.0 132.2 130.7 130.3 130.6 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 INIT LAT (N) 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 AVG LAT (N) 32.8 33.2 33.4 33.6 33.7 33.7 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 FCST VMAX (KT) DSHP 28.0 30.0 28.0 27.0 27.0 28.0 28.0 27.0 27.0 26.0 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 2.3 1.3 -2.3 -0.5 1.0 -1.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STD DEV (KT) 1.5 1.3 4.0 2.4 4.5 5.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 2.3 1.3 -2.3 -0.5 1.0 -1.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL112016 09/19/16 00 UTC * * LGEM * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 LGEM VMAX (KT) 25.0 27.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 30.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 LGEM VMAX BC (KT) 26.4 29.7 30.7 26.2 23.4 26.2 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED LGEM AERR (KT) 4.3 6.3 8.6 7.9 8.2 8.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM LGEM AERR (KT) 5.1 7.5 9.4 10.8 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.1 13.6 PRED LGEM BIAS (KT) -1.4 -2.7 -4.7 -0.2 2.6 3.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM LGEM BIAS (KT) -0.8 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.1 AERR PREDICTORS: INIT LAT (N) 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.2 AVG LAT (N) 32.8 33.2 33.4 33.6 33.7 33.7 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 FCST VMAX CHNGE (KT) 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 5.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STD DEV (KT) 1.5 1.3 4.0 2.4 4.5 5.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -0.8 -1.8 -4.3 -1.5 0.0 0.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -0.8 -1.8 -4.3 -1.5 0.0 0.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL112016 09/19/16 00 UTC * * GHMI * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 GHMI VMAX (KT) 25.0 29.0 35.0 31.0 31.0 37.0 42.0 37.0 34.0 33.0 GHMI VMAX BC (KT) 26.4 29.4 29.8 25.9 23.2 25.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED GHMI AERR (KT) 3.7 5.1 8.6 7.6 8.7 11.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM GHMI AERR (KT) 5.7 8.3 10.4 11.6 12.2 14.0 14.9 16.2 16.7 17.4 PRED GHMI BIAS (KT) -1.4 -0.4 5.2 5.1 7.8 11.7 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM GHMI BIAS (KT) -0.6 -1.8 -1.7 0.4 2.6 4.9 7.2 8.6 10.3 12.2 AERR PREDICTORS: FCST VMAX (KT) GHMI 25.0 29.0 35.0 31.0 31.0 37.0 42.0 37.0 34.0 33.0 FCST VMAX CHNGE (KT) 0.0 4.0 10.0 6.0 6.0 12.0 17.0 12.0 9.0 8.0 ENS STD DEV (KT) 1.5 1.3 4.0 2.4 4.5 5.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -0.8 0.3 4.8 3.5 5.0 7.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -0.8 0.3 4.8 3.5 5.0 7.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL112016 09/19/16 00 UTC * * HWFI * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 HWFI VMAX (KT) 25.0 29.0 32.0 26.0 20.0 23.0 24.0 16.0 13.0 11.0 HWFI VMAX BC (KT) 26.3 29.4 30.4 25.9 22.6 25.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED HWFI AERR (KT) 3.7 4.9 6.5 5.6 6.5 7.1 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM HWFI AERR (KT) 5.3 7.6 9.4 10.5 11.9 13.3 14.0 15.5 17.0 17.7 PRED HWFI BIAS (KT) -1.3 -0.4 1.6 0.1 -2.6 -2.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM HWFI BIAS (KT) -0.6 -0.7 0.4 1.9 3.4 4.4 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.7 AERR PREDICTORS: FCST VMAX CHNGE (KT) 0.0 4.0 7.0 1.0 -5.0 -2.0 -1.0 -9.0 -12.0 -14.0 ENS STD DEV (KT) 1.5 1.3 4.0 2.4 4.5 5.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG MPI (KT) 137.0 134.0 132.2 130.7 130.3 130.6 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 FCST VMAX (KT) HWFI 25.0 29.0 32.0 26.0 20.0 23.0 24.0 16.0 13.0 11.0 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -0.8 0.3 1.8 -1.5 -6.0 -6.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -0.8 0.3 1.8 -1.5 -6.0 -6.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * Corrected Consensus * ICON (KT) 25.8 28.8 30.2 27.5 26.0 29.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CCON (KT) 25.7 29.0 30.0 27.2 25.4 27.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 OBSERVED VMAX (KT) -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9