* PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL152016 10/18/16 06 UTC * * DSHP * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 DSHP VMAX (KT) 50.0 51.0 46.0 28.0 23.0 18.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DSHP VMAX BC (KT) 49.6 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED DSHP AERR (KT) 2.7 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM DSHP AERR (KT) 5.3 7.9 9.7 11.3 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.5 14.8 14.5 PRED DSHP BIAS (KT) 0.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM DSHP BIAS (KT) -0.3 0.8 2.0 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.2 2.3 0.6 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG DTL (KM) 1073.7 1159.6 1210.2 1211.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 INIT VMAX (KT) DSHP 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 IR PIX T < -20C (%) -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 INIT MIDLEV RH (%) 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 P12H VMAX CHNGE (KT) -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 INIT MPI (KT) 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 INIT OHC (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 INIT SHEAR DIR (DEG) -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 AVG MIDLEV RH (%) 54.3 50.8 50.0 51.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG VSHEAR (KT) 12.7 18.8 17.7 19.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 FORECAST DTL (KM) 1149.0 1323.0 1463.0 1222.0 1222.0 1222.0 1222.0 1222.0 1222.0 1222.0 FCST VMAX CHNGE (KT) -5.0 -4.0 -9.0 -27.0 -32.0 -37.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG OHC (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 AVG MPI (KT) 74.0 71.8 71.5 71.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 INIT LAT (N) 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 AVG LAT (N) 48.6 51.5 53.1 55.4 -999.9 -999.9-5499.5-6999.3-7749.2-8199.2 FCST VMAX (KT) DSHP 50.0 51.0 46.0 28.0 23.0 18.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 1.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STD DEV (KT) 2.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 1.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL152016 10/18/16 06 UTC * * LGEM * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 LGEM VMAX (KT) 50.0 47.0 40.0 34.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 LGEM VMAX BC (KT) 49.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED LGEM AERR (KT) 4.7 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM LGEM AERR (KT) 5.1 7.5 9.4 10.8 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.1 13.6 PRED LGEM BIAS (KT) 0.6 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM LGEM BIAS (KT) -0.8 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.1 AERR PREDICTORS: INIT LAT (N) 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 AVG LAT (N) 48.6 51.5 53.1 55.4 -999.9 -999.9-5499.5-6999.3-7749.2-8199.2 FCST VMAX CHNGE (KT) -5.0 -8.0 -15.0 -21.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STD DEV (KT) 2.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 1.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 1.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL152016 10/18/16 06 UTC * * GHMI * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 GHMI VMAX (KT) 46.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 GHMI VMAX BC (KT) 49.7 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED GHMI AERR (KT) 4.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM GHMI AERR (KT) 5.7 8.3 10.4 11.6 12.2 14.0 14.9 16.2 16.7 17.4 PRED GHMI BIAS (KT) -3.7 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM GHMI BIAS (KT) -0.6 -1.8 -1.7 0.4 2.6 4.9 7.2 8.6 10.3 12.2 AERR PREDICTORS: FCST VMAX (KT) GHMI 46.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 FCST VMAX CHNGE (KT) -9.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STD DEV (KT) 2.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -3.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -3.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * AL152016 10/18/16 06 UTC * * HWFI * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 HWFI VMAX (KT) 50.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 HWFI VMAX BC (KT) 49.7 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED HWFI AERR (KT) 3.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM HWFI AERR (KT) 5.3 7.6 9.4 10.5 11.9 13.3 14.0 15.5 17.0 17.7 PRED HWFI BIAS (KT) 0.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM HWFI BIAS (KT) -0.6 -0.7 0.4 1.9 3.4 4.4 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.7 AERR PREDICTORS: FCST VMAX CHNGE (KT) -5.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STD DEV (KT) 2.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG MPI (KT) 74.0 71.8 71.5 71.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 FCST VMAX (KT) HWFI 50.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 1.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 1.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * Corrected Consensus * ICON (KT) 49.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CCON (KT) 49.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 OBSERVED VMAX (KT) -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9