* PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * EP062016 07/22/16 12 UTC * * DSHP * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 DSHP VMAX (KT) 29.0 25.0 20.0 16.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DSHP VMAX BC (KT) 32.0 31.5 29.1 25.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED DSHP AERR (KT) 3.4 5.3 6.0 5.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM DSHP AERR (KT) 4.9 8.0 9.0 9.7 10.6 11.3 10.6 10.7 11.4 11.5 PRED DSHP BIAS (KT) -3.0 -6.5 -9.1 -9.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM DSHP BIAS (KT) -1.0 -1.0 -0.6 0.3 1.7 2.9 3.9 4.7 5.1 5.7 AERR PREDICTORS: FCST VMAX (KT) DSHP 29.0 25.0 20.0 16.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -1.0 -3.3 -7.3 -8.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (KM) 1909.0 1909.0 1909.0 1909.0 1909.0 1909.0 1909.0 1909.0 1909.0 1909.0 AVG DTL (KM) 1951.7 1923.0 1866.7 1800.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -1.0 -3.3 -7.3 -8.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * EP062016 07/22/16 12 UTC * * LGEM * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 LGEM VMAX (KT) 30.0 26.0 23.0 21.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 LGEM VMAX BC (KT) 32.8 31.9 30.9 27.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED LGEM AERR (KT) 5.3 8.1 9.7 9.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM LGEM AERR (KT) 5.1 7.8 9.3 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.7 10.0 9.5 9.9 PRED LGEM BIAS (KT) -2.8 -5.9 -7.9 -6.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM LGEM BIAS (KT) -1.7 -3.3 -4.5 -4.8 -4.5 -4.2 -4.1 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG DTL (KM) 1951.7 1923.0 1866.7 1800.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (KM) 1909.0 1909.0 1909.0 1909.0 1909.0 1909.0 1909.0 1909.0 1909.0 1909.0 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 0.0 -2.3 -4.3 -3.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG DTL (KM) 1951.7 1923.0 1866.7 1800.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * EP062016 07/22/16 12 UTC * * GHMI * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 GHMI VMAX (KT) 29.0 31.0 37.0 35.0 32.0 33.0 27.0 19.0 12.0 -999.9 GHMI VMAX BC (KT) 28.8 24.5 21.0 20.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED GHMI AERR (KT) 2.7 3.1 5.4 6.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM GHMI AERR (KT) 5.9 8.9 11.2 12.5 12.8 13.6 13.7 12.2 10.1 9.0 PRED GHMI BIAS (KT) 0.2 6.5 16.0 15.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM GHMI BIAS (KT) -5.0 -8.6 -10.1 -9.9 -8.1 -5.7 -3.5 -1.5 -0.1 2.0 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 21.9 22.4 22.8 23.2-1646.9-2840.1-3734.9-4430.9-4987.7-5443.3 AVG MPI (KT) 87.0 89.0 91.3 93.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STD DEV (KT) 1.4 3.2 7.5 8.1 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -1.0 2.8 9.8 10.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT LAT (N) 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 AVG LAT (N) 21.9 22.4 22.8 23.2-1646.9-2840.1-3734.9-4430.9-4987.7-5443.3 AVG 200MB DIV -18.7 -13.6 -11.7 -11.7 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -1.0 2.8 9.8 10.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * EP062016 07/22/16 12 UTC * * HWFI * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 HWFI VMAX (KT) 32.0 31.0 29.0 26.0 25.0 24.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 HWFI VMAX BC (KT) 32.1 31.8 31.8 28.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED HWFI AERR (KT) 2.0 2.5 4.1 4.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM HWFI AERR (KT) 5.1 7.9 9.7 10.8 11.6 11.3 12.3 11.6 10.6 10.3 PRED HWFI BIAS (KT) -0.1 -0.8 -2.8 -2.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM HWFI BIAS (KT) -2.3 -4.2 -5.0 -3.9 -1.9 -0.6 0.2 1.4 1.9 3.3 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG MPI (KT) 87.0 89.0 91.3 93.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 FCST VMAX CHNGE (KT) -3.0 -4.0 -6.0 -9.0 -10.0 -11.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STD DEV (KT) 1.4 3.2 7.5 8.1 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 2.0 2.8 1.8 1.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 FCST VMAX (KT) HWFI 32.0 31.0 29.0 26.0 25.0 24.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 2.0 2.8 1.8 1.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * Corrected Consensus * ICON (KT) 30.0 28.2 27.2 24.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CCON (KT) 31.4 29.9 28.2 25.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 OBSERVED VMAX (KT) -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9