* PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * EP102016 08/09/16 00 UTC * * DSHP * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 DSHP VMAX (KT) 21.0 17.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DSHP VMAX BC (KT) 22.7 21.2 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED DSHP AERR (KT) 3.2 5.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM DSHP AERR (KT) 4.9 8.0 9.0 9.7 10.6 11.3 10.6 10.7 11.4 11.5 PRED DSHP BIAS (KT) -1.7 -4.2 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM DSHP BIAS (KT) -1.0 -1.0 -0.6 0.3 1.7 2.9 3.9 4.7 5.1 5.7 AERR PREDICTORS: FCST VMAX (KT) DSHP 21.0 17.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -1.5 -4.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (KM) 1355.0 1355.0 1355.0 1355.0 1355.0 1355.0 1355.0 1355.0 1355.0 1355.0 AVG DTL (KM) 1262.3 1160.2 1087.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -1.5 -4.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * EP102016 08/09/16 00 UTC * * LGEM * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 LGEM VMAX (KT) 21.0 17.0 15.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 LGEM VMAX BC (KT) 23.1 20.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED LGEM AERR (KT) 4.9 7.3 7.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM LGEM AERR (KT) 5.1 7.8 9.3 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.7 10.0 9.5 9.9 PRED LGEM BIAS (KT) -2.1 -3.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM LGEM BIAS (KT) -1.7 -3.3 -4.5 -4.8 -4.5 -4.2 -4.1 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG DTL (KM) 1262.3 1160.2 1087.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (KM) 1355.0 1355.0 1355.0 1355.0 1355.0 1355.0 1355.0 1355.0 1355.0 1355.0 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -1.5 -4.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG DTL (KM) 1262.3 1160.2 1087.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * EP102016 08/09/16 00 UTC * * GHMI * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 GHMI VMAX (KT) 24.0 30.0 31.0 31.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 GHMI VMAX BC (KT) 22.7 21.4 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED GHMI AERR (KT) 4.3 9.2 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM GHMI AERR (KT) 5.9 8.9 11.2 12.5 12.8 13.6 13.7 12.2 10.1 9.0 PRED GHMI BIAS (KT) 1.3 8.6 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM GHMI BIAS (KT) -5.0 -8.6 -10.1 -9.9 -8.1 -5.7 -3.5 -1.5 -0.1 2.0 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 17.1 17.0 16.8-3989.4-4991.0-5706.5-6243.0-6660.4-6994.2-7267.4 AVG MPI (KT) 134.3 135.4 137.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STD DEV (KT) 1.7 6.2 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 1.5 8.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT LAT (N) 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 AVG LAT (N) 17.1 17.0 16.8-3989.4-4991.0-5706.5-6243.0-6660.4-6994.2-7267.4 AVG 200MB DIV 1.0 0.0 0.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 1.5 8.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * EP102016 08/09/16 00 UTC * * HWFI * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 HWFI VMAX (KT) 24.0 23.0 23.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 HWFI VMAX BC (KT) 24.7 25.7 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED HWFI AERR (KT) 3.4 4.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM HWFI AERR (KT) 5.1 7.9 9.7 10.8 11.6 11.3 12.3 11.6 10.6 10.3 PRED HWFI BIAS (KT) -0.7 -2.7 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM HWFI BIAS (KT) -2.3 -4.2 -5.0 -3.9 -1.9 -0.6 0.2 1.4 1.9 3.3 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG MPI (KT) 134.3 135.4 137.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 FCST VMAX CHNGE (KT) -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STD DEV (KT) 1.7 6.2 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 1.5 1.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 FCST VMAX (KT) HWFI 24.0 23.0 23.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 1.5 1.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * Corrected Consensus * ICON (KT) 22.5 21.8 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CCON (KT) 23.3 22.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 OBSERVED VMAX (KT) -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9