* PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * EP182016 09/29/16 12 UTC * * DSHP * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 DSHP VMAX (KT) 22.0 17.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DSHP VMAX BC (KT) 22.3 20.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED DSHP AERR (KT) 3.3 4.6 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM DSHP AERR (KT) 4.9 8.0 9.0 9.7 10.6 11.3 10.6 10.7 11.4 11.5 PRED DSHP BIAS (KT) -0.3 -3.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM DSHP BIAS (KT) -1.0 -1.0 -0.6 0.3 1.7 2.9 3.9 4.7 5.1 5.7 AERR PREDICTORS: FCST VMAX (KT) DSHP 22.0 17.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 2.0 1.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (KM) 361.0 361.0 361.0 361.0 361.0 361.0 361.0 361.0 361.0 361.0 AVG DTL (KM) 384.7 405.6 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 2.0 1.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * EP182016 09/29/16 12 UTC * * LGEM * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 LGEM VMAX (KT) 20.0 16.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 LGEM VMAX BC (KT) 21.5 20.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED LGEM AERR (KT) 5.1 7.7 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM LGEM AERR (KT) 5.1 7.8 9.3 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.7 10.0 9.5 9.9 PRED LGEM BIAS (KT) -1.5 -4.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM LGEM BIAS (KT) -1.7 -3.3 -4.5 -4.8 -4.5 -4.2 -4.1 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG DTL (KM) 384.7 405.6 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT DTL (KM) 361.0 361.0 361.0 361.0 361.0 361.0 361.0 361.0 361.0 361.0 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 0.0 0.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 AVG DTL (KM) 384.7 405.6 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * EP182016 09/29/16 12 UTC * * GHMI * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 GHMI VMAX (KT) 20.0 15.0 11.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 GHMI VMAX BC (KT) 20.0 20.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED GHMI AERR (KT) 2.7 2.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM GHMI AERR (KT) 5.9 8.9 11.2 12.5 12.8 13.6 13.7 12.2 10.1 9.0 PRED GHMI BIAS (KT) 0.0 -5.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM GHMI BIAS (KT) -5.0 -8.6 -10.1 -9.9 -8.1 -5.7 -3.5 -1.5 -0.1 2.0 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG LAT (N) 23.5 23.7-2482.0-3985.4-4987.6-5703.6-6240.5-6658.1-6992.2-7265.5 AVG MPI (KT) 100.3 97.6 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STD DEV (KT) 1.6 1.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 0.0 -0.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: INIT LAT (N) 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 AVG LAT (N) 23.5 23.7-2482.0-3985.4-4987.6-5703.6-6240.5-6658.1-6992.2-7265.5 AVG 200MB DIV -1.7 -6.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) 0.0 -0.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * EP182016 09/29/16 12 UTC * * HWFI * FORECAST TIME (HR) 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 HWFI VMAX (KT) 18.0 14.0 13.0 11.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 HWFI VMAX BC (KT) 23.0 20.1 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 PRED HWFI AERR (KT) 2.5 3.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM HWFI AERR (KT) 5.1 7.9 9.7 10.8 11.6 11.3 12.3 11.6 10.6 10.3 PRED HWFI BIAS (KT) -5.0 -6.1 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CLIM HWFI BIAS (KT) -2.3 -4.2 -5.0 -3.9 -1.9 -0.6 0.2 1.4 1.9 3.3 AERR PREDICTORS: AVG MPI (KT) 100.3 97.6 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 FCST VMAX CHNGE (KT) -7.0 -11.0 -12.0 -14.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 ENS STD DEV (KT) 1.6 1.3 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -2.0 -1.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 FCST VMAX (KT) HWFI 18.0 14.0 13.0 11.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 BIAS PREDICTORS: DEV FR ENS MEAN (KT) -2.0 -1.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 * PRedicted Intensity Model Error (PRIME) * * Corrected Consensus * ICON (KT) 20.0 15.5 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 CCON (KT) 21.7 20.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 OBSERVED VMAX (KT) -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9