Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042019 190821 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.30     54.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  27.0  24.3  21.5  15.1  14.2  12.4  10.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.7  80.0  73.0  70.4  77.2  73.0  74.4  78.6  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -30.0 -34.0 -13.0 -17.0   3.0  -2.0 -20.0 -53.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  35.0  33.0  34.0  34.0  32.0  32.0  34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.0  27.0  24.3  21.5  15.1  14.2  12.4  10.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%