Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042019 190821 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.30     52.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  22.7  19.7  18.8  15.9  12.2  11.2   8.7  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.6  74.4  74.4  77.2  74.4  74.4  75.8  78.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -35.0 -13.0  -9.0   4.0 -10.0 -35.0 -61.0 -44.0 VU  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  32.0  33.0  34.0  32.0  33.0  36.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.2  22.7  19.7  18.8  15.9  12.2  11.2   8.7  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%