Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042019 190821 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.90     50.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  16.1  15.8  15.0  12.4   7.4   5.3   9.3  N  F  F  F  F VF VF  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  77.2  80.0  73.0  73.0  75.8  78.6  83.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0 -30.0   8.0  -6.0 -38.0 -59.0 -52.0 -33.0 VU VU  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   32.0  33.0  32.0  31.0  32.0  33.0  36.0  37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.7  16.1  15.8  15.0  12.4   7.4   5.3   9.3  N  F  F  F  F VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%