Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042019 190822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.60     48.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  16.7  13.6  12.5   8.0   4.9  10.4  17.6  F  F  F  F VF VF  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.2  83.6  82.2  79.4  80.8  83.6  86.5  89.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -25.0   5.0 -21.0 -42.0 -71.0 -50.0 -41.0 -13.0 VU  U VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   33.0  32.0  31.0  33.0  36.0  38.0  38.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.5  16.7  13.6  12.5   8.0   4.9  10.4  17.6  F  F  F  F VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        2.9%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        0.3%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%