Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042019 190822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.30     46.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  15.6  12.7   9.0   4.6   7.7  16.0  19.6  F  F  F  F VF VF  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         83.6  79.4  78.0  78.0  80.8  83.6  88.0  91.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0 -21.0 -30.0 -92.0 -52.0 -23.0 -21.0 -13.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   32.0  31.0  33.0  36.0  38.0  39.0  39.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.1  15.6  12.7   9.0   4.6   7.7  16.0  19.6  F  F  F  F VF VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        3.5%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        0.3%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%