Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042019 190822 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.40     42.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7   8.9   6.4   7.7  13.4  16.8  23.3  27.2  F  F VF VF  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.0  79.4  82.2  85.0  88.0  91.1  91.1  92.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -41.0 -75.0 -53.0 -44.0 -25.0 -14.0  -9.0   5.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   31.0  35.0  37.0  38.0  38.0  37.0  36.0  34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.7   8.9   6.4   7.7  13.4  16.8  23.3  27.2  F  F VF VF  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        3.2%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        0.4%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%