Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042019 190823 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.00     42.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.8   9.6   8.0  13.6  16.1  24.1  26.2  25.6  F  F VF  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.0  80.8  83.6  86.5  89.6  91.1  91.1  91.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -96.0 -58.0 -59.0 -26.0 -24.0 -13.0   1.0  12.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  36.0  38.0  38.0  37.0  36.0  34.0  34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.8   9.6   8.0  13.6  16.1  24.1  26.2  25.6  F  F VF  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        1.6%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        0.2%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%