Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042019 190823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.40     41.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.8   9.1  13.4  15.9  22.6  25.7  25.0  28.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.8  88.6  93.0  96.1  97.7  97.7  96.1  94.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -53.0 -61.0 -15.0 -22.0 -14.0  -5.0  16.0  32.0 VU VU  U VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  36.0  37.0  37.0  36.0  34.0  33.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.8   9.1  13.4  15.9  22.6  25.7  25.0  28.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        1.0%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        0.2%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%