Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042019 190823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.90     40.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.3  14.8  20.7  27.5  31.2  31.8  32.7  30.0 VF  F  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  94.6  97.7  99.3 101.0 102.7 104.4 106.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -69.0  -9.0 -26.0  -9.0  -4.0  27.0  23.0  32.0 VU  U VU  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  36.0  36.0  36.0  34.0  35.0  38.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.3  14.8  20.7  27.5  31.2  31.8  32.7  30.0 VF  F  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.1%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%