Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042019 190823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.40     40.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  18.3  25.5  31.2  31.7  32.7  29.3  26.8  F  F  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         93.0  96.1  97.7 101.0 101.0 104.4 104.4 106.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0 -11.0 -12.0  -9.0  15.0  16.0  23.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  36.0  35.0  34.0  35.0  38.0  41.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.8  18.3  25.5  31.2  31.7  32.7  29.3  26.8  F  F  N  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.2%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%