Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042019 190824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.80     40.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  26.6  30.9  32.0  32.4  29.5  27.7  21.4  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.1  99.3  99.3 101.0 101.0 104.4 104.4 104.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0 -10.0 -13.0  21.0  20.0  25.0  27.0 -16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  35.0  33.0  34.0  37.0  39.0  40.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.7  26.6  30.9  32.0  32.4  29.5  27.7  21.4  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%