Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60     48.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     41.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  15.2  16.1  16.1  17.9  18.6  18.1  16.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  12.0  12.0  14.0  18.0  26.0  33.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        132.0 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0 -16.0 -19.0  -8.0  -9.0  -4.0 -23.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  41.0  39.0  40.0  41.0  42.0  42.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  15.2  16.1  16.1  17.9  18.6  18.1  16.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.8%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%       13.8%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        5.4%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        4.3%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%        1.4%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%       20.0%       11.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%        7.4%        4.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.4%       10.0%        7.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        4.6%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h       15.7%       17.0%       16.4%