Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.80     49.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     43.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  15.5  16.0  17.3  17.8  18.2  14.5  10.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  12.0  14.0  19.0  28.0  36.0  43.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        129.3 129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0 -22.0 -13.0 -24.0  -9.0 -17.0  -6.0   0.0  U VU  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  38.0  39.0  41.0  41.0  43.0  45.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.7  15.5  16.0  17.3  17.8  18.2  14.5  10.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        2.1%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.7%       13.8%        8.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        5.8%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        4.8%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%        1.7%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%       17.0%       10.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.9%        6.4%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h        6.7%       11.3%        9.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.9%        4.5%        4.2%
 65kt / 72h       16.6%       15.3%       15.9%