Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190825 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10     52.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     29.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  16.8  15.9  15.5  13.1   9.6  13.3  16.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  24.0  31.0  44.0  54.0  41.0  38.0  45.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0  -9.0  -5.0 -22.0 -16.0   1.0   6.0  -6.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  41.0  42.0  43.0  45.0  47.0  48.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  16.8  15.9  15.5  13.1   9.6  13.3  16.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.7%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%       13.6%        7.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        5.5%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        4.5%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        1.7%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.6%       19.0%       11.8%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%        6.9%        5.2%
 55kt / 48h        9.5%       13.4%       11.4%
 70kt / 48h        5.4%        4.4%        4.9%
 65kt / 72h       25.5%       16.8%       21.1%