Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40     53.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     32.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  14.5  12.8  13.2   9.3  12.7  15.6  15.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  33.0  49.0  54.0  40.0  37.0  44.0  47.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0   5.0  -6.0 -21.0  -9.0   7.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  42.0  43.0  45.0  46.0  49.0  50.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.2  14.5  12.8  13.2   9.3  12.7  15.6  15.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        5.7%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h       12.1%       34.4%       23.2%
 30kt / 24h        9.9%       19.2%       14.6%
 35kt / 24h        9.9%       19.2%       14.6%
 40kt / 24h        9.9%        7.8%        8.8%
 45kt / 36h       13.2%       40.8%       27.0%
 55kt / 36h        9.5%       22.9%       16.2%
 55kt / 48h       17.0%       26.8%       21.9%
 70kt / 48h        8.9%       11.1%       10.0%
 65kt / 72h       30.4%       27.4%       28.9%