Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190826 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60     54.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     27.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  13.4  14.3  11.1  12.3  15.2  14.3  12.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  49.0  53.0  38.0  38.0  44.0  47.0  44.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0 -10.0 -14.0  -9.0   6.0  14.0   3.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  43.0  43.0  44.0  46.0  49.0  47.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.3  13.4  14.3  11.1  12.3  15.2  14.3  12.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.8%        9.0%        8.9%
 25kt / 24h       24.2%       39.7%       32.0%
 30kt / 24h       24.2%       23.2%       23.7%
 35kt / 24h       24.2%       23.2%       23.7%
 40kt / 24h       24.2%       11.9%       18.0%
 45kt / 36h       20.8%       42.0%       31.4%
 55kt / 36h       16.4%       23.4%       19.9%
 55kt / 48h       19.1%       27.0%       23.1%
 70kt / 48h       12.3%       11.5%       11.9%
 65kt / 72h       31.3%       22.6%       27.0%