Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190826 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80     55.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     26.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  13.9  10.8  13.0  14.5  13.8  13.7  15.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  54.0  39.0  38.0  45.0  47.0  43.0  44.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0   2.0 -14.0   4.0   9.0  13.0  -4.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  43.0  46.0  49.0  47.0  46.0  47.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.1  13.9  10.8  13.0  14.5  13.8  13.7  15.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.6%       11.2%       11.9%
 25kt / 24h       35.5%       42.1%       38.8%
 30kt / 24h       35.5%       25.5%       30.5%
 35kt / 24h       35.5%       24.9%       30.2%
 40kt / 24h       35.5%       14.7%       25.1%
 45kt / 36h       26.8%       39.5%       33.2%
 55kt / 36h       20.3%       19.9%       20.1%
 55kt / 48h       20.8%       25.0%       22.9%
 70kt / 48h       12.9%        8.9%       10.9%
 65kt / 72h       34.6%       18.8%       26.7%