Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10     57.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  11.4  13.2  14.1  12.4  13.5  17.1  19.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  39.0  37.0  47.0  46.0  42.0  42.0  54.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  -6.0  13.0  14.0   4.0 -10.0   9.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  44.0  45.0  48.0  46.0  47.0  47.0  47.0 VU VU VU  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.6  11.4  13.2  14.1  12.4  13.5  17.1  19.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.5%       16.2%       12.9%
 25kt / 24h       29.2%       53.8%       41.5%
 30kt / 24h       20.3%       43.9%       32.1%
 35kt / 24h       18.8%       43.9%       31.3%
 40kt / 24h       18.8%       23.9%       21.3%
 45kt / 36h       22.9%       48.9%       35.9%
 55kt / 36h       15.8%       32.1%       24.0%
 55kt / 48h       20.6%       35.0%       27.8%
 70kt / 48h       10.2%       12.4%       11.3%
 65kt / 72h       34.3%       24.2%       29.3%