Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     58.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.9  13.1  14.0  12.4  12.1  16.6  19.9  20.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  39.0  49.0  46.0  42.0  43.0  61.0  77.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  22.0   6.0   6.0  11.0  24.0  37.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  47.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  45.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.9  13.1  14.0  12.4  12.1  16.6  19.9  20.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%        7.6%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h       15.8%       35.2%       25.5%
 30kt / 24h       11.8%       22.9%       17.4%
 35kt / 24h        6.4%       22.9%       14.7%
 40kt / 24h        6.4%       11.7%        9.0%
 45kt / 36h       15.4%       27.6%       21.5%
 55kt / 36h        9.3%       13.3%       11.3%
 55kt / 48h       17.8%       23.5%       20.7%
 70kt / 48h        9.7%        5.9%        7.8%
 65kt / 72h       36.3%       15.2%       25.7%