Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00     59.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.7  13.7  10.5  12.3  15.1  18.3  19.7  17.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  49.0  46.0  42.0  44.0  62.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  10.0 -17.0   2.0  20.0  25.0  29.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  46.0  45.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  48.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.7  13.7  10.5  12.3  15.1  18.3  19.7  17.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        3.7%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        7.4%       24.2%       15.8%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%       12.4%        8.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%       12.4%        7.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%        5.6%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h        9.6%       19.0%       14.3%
 55kt / 36h        5.5%        7.4%        6.5%
 55kt / 48h       17.8%       19.1%       18.4%
 70kt / 48h        9.5%        4.3%        6.9%
 65kt / 72h       36.9%       13.6%       25.2%