Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30     60.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     36.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6  11.1  12.5  15.1  18.2  20.7  18.6  17.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  46.0  42.0  43.0  59.0  76.0  80.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  -9.0  -9.0  15.0  17.0  41.0  25.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  47.0  46.0  51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.6  11.1  12.5  15.1  18.2  20.7  18.6  17.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        4.7%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h        9.1%       25.8%       17.5%
 30kt / 24h        8.8%       12.6%       10.7%
 35kt / 24h        8.8%       12.5%       10.6%
 40kt / 24h        8.8%        6.2%        7.5%
 45kt / 36h       13.0%       21.4%       17.2%
 55kt / 36h        8.0%        8.3%        8.1%
 55kt / 48h       18.8%       18.0%       18.4%
 70kt / 48h       11.4%        4.8%        8.1%
 65kt / 72h       35.1%       13.3%       24.2%