Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00     61.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.4  13.7  16.5  20.5  23.9  19.3  20.1  20.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  39.0  43.0  62.0  79.0  76.0  66.0  61.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  11.0  51.0  35.0  35.0  16.0   4.0  19.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  44.0  45.0  46.0  49.0  53.0  56.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.4  13.7  16.5  20.5  23.9  19.3  20.1  20.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        9.1%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h       18.1%       40.3%       29.2%
 30kt / 24h       10.7%       27.1%       18.9%
 35kt / 24h        8.1%       27.1%       17.6%
 40kt / 24h        8.1%       12.4%       10.3%
 45kt / 36h       13.6%       33.8%       23.7%
 55kt / 36h        7.7%       16.9%       12.3%
 55kt / 48h       19.1%       25.5%       22.3%
 70kt / 48h        9.5%        7.8%        8.6%
 65kt / 72h       33.8%       19.3%       26.5%