Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190827 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00     62.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  17.3  21.9  22.5  18.8  19.5  19.2  16.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  42.0  61.0  80.0  69.0  62.0  66.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  51.0  29.0   9.0  -1.0  10.0   8.0  15.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  43.0  45.0  45.0  48.0  51.0  54.0  57.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.5  17.3  21.9  22.5  18.8  19.5  19.2  16.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        9.4%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h       18.7%       40.0%       29.4%
 30kt / 24h       10.7%       26.4%       18.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%       26.4%       15.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%       12.2%        7.5%
 45kt / 36h       12.1%       34.5%       23.3%
 55kt / 36h        6.9%       17.6%       12.3%
 55kt / 48h       18.0%       27.5%       22.8%
 70kt / 48h        9.6%        8.5%        9.0%
 65kt / 72h       37.6%       23.8%       30.7%