Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190828 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     62.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  18.9  19.0  17.1  15.6  15.5  12.2  14.3  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  58.0  78.0  69.0  67.0  75.0  67.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  28.0   9.0  13.0  -4.0 -13.0   5.0  25.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  45.0  47.0  49.0  52.0  55.0  57.0  60.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.6  18.9  19.0  17.1  15.6  15.5  12.2  14.3  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        3.9%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h       10.0%       23.8%       16.9%
 30kt / 24h        7.5%       10.7%        9.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%       10.7%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%        5.8%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h       13.5%       21.1%       17.3%
 55kt / 36h        8.5%        8.4%        8.5%
 55kt / 48h       21.5%       20.3%       20.9%
 70kt / 48h       13.4%        5.4%        9.4%
 65kt / 72h       39.9%       17.6%       28.8%