Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     63.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  19.3  19.5  17.1  15.6  14.2  14.5  13.5  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  78.0  71.0  67.0  77.0  66.0  55.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  20.0  10.0  -5.0 -26.0  18.0  37.0  28.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  45.0  47.0  51.0  54.0  56.0  59.0  58.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.9  19.3  19.5  17.1  15.6  14.2  14.5  13.5  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.9%        9.8%        8.9%
 25kt / 24h       23.0%       41.3%       32.2%
 30kt / 24h       16.3%       26.8%       21.6%
 35kt / 24h       13.6%       26.8%       20.2%
 40kt / 24h       13.6%       14.9%       14.3%
 45kt / 36h       20.5%       37.2%       28.9%
 55kt / 36h       14.0%       19.8%       16.9%
 55kt / 48h       22.9%       30.1%       26.5%
 70kt / 48h       13.9%        9.6%       11.8%
 65kt / 72h       37.9%       24.6%       31.2%