Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10     64.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  17.3  15.9  16.1  14.3  11.3  10.5   7.8  N  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  72.0  78.0  83.0  81.0  54.0  47.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  -5.0 -13.0 -13.0  35.0  51.0  22.0 -10.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  49.0  52.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  59.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.5  17.3  15.9  16.1  14.3  11.3  10.5   7.8  N  F  F  F  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.2%       13.6%       12.4%
 25kt / 24h       30.2%       49.4%       39.8%
 30kt / 24h       22.6%       37.7%       30.1%
 35kt / 24h       18.5%       37.7%       28.1%
 40kt / 24h       18.5%       22.6%       20.5%
 45kt / 36h       28.8%       43.7%       36.2%
 55kt / 36h       19.6%       25.7%       22.7%
 55kt / 48h       29.5%       39.1%       34.3%
 70kt / 48h       16.9%       12.3%       14.6%
 65kt / 72h       35.8%       24.8%       30.3%