Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30     65.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  16.9  15.3  13.8  11.4  11.1  10.6   9.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  81.0  84.0  73.0  45.0  48.0  55.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0   6.0   4.0  47.0  35.0  37.0  -3.0  41.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  51.0  54.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.5  16.9  15.3  13.8  11.4  11.1  10.6   9.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       51.4%       29.7%       40.6%
 25kt / 24h       57.9%       65.5%       61.7%
 30kt / 24h       57.9%       58.1%       58.0%
 35kt / 24h       57.9%       58.1%       58.0%
 40kt / 24h       57.9%       48.8%       53.3%
 45kt / 36h       48.9%       54.3%       51.6%
 55kt / 36h       36.3%       37.7%       37.0%
 55kt / 48h       35.5%       44.0%       39.8%
 70kt / 48h       23.5%       15.4%       19.4%
 65kt / 72h       30.8%       22.8%       26.8%