Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20     65.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  15.4  15.5  13.7  11.4  11.0   8.9  10.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  84.0  62.0  45.0  48.0  55.0  52.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  22.0  36.0  53.0  29.0   6.0  19.0  22.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  54.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.8  15.4  15.5  13.7  11.4  11.0   8.9  10.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       61.9%       29.0%       45.5%
 25kt / 24h       63.9%       58.4%       61.2%
 30kt / 24h       63.9%       49.8%       56.9%
 35kt / 24h       63.9%       49.8%       56.9%
 40kt / 24h       63.9%       45.6%       54.8%
 45kt / 36h       53.6%       41.1%       47.3%
 55kt / 36h       39.4%       24.7%       32.0%
 55kt / 48h       33.2%       35.5%       34.4%
 70kt / 48h       22.5%        9.1%       15.8%
 65kt / 72h       25.1%       14.3%       19.7%