Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     66.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  14.1  13.7  12.8  11.4   9.4  13.2  15.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  73.0  44.0  47.0  53.0  56.0  40.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  55.0  55.0  45.0  22.0  27.0  58.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  55.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  59.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.3  14.1  13.7  12.8  11.4   9.4  13.2  15.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.6%       31.6%       45.1%
 25kt / 24h       74.5%       62.1%       68.3%
 30kt / 24h       74.5%       56.0%       65.3%
 35kt / 24h       74.5%       56.0%       65.3%
 40kt / 24h       74.5%       52.2%       63.4%
 45kt / 36h       55.5%       39.2%       47.4%
 55kt / 36h       36.6%       21.1%       28.9%
 55kt / 48h       33.3%       35.4%       34.3%
 70kt / 48h       19.8%        6.6%       13.2%
 65kt / 72h       30.0%       12.5%       21.3%