Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00     66.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  13.7  12.8  12.1  11.3  16.0  18.3  15.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  44.0  45.0  52.0  57.0  44.0  40.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  56.0  30.0  34.0  31.0  48.0  39.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.7  13.7  12.8  12.1  11.3  16.0  18.3  15.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       35.7%       19.3%       27.5%
 25kt / 24h       51.9%       50.3%       51.1%
 30kt / 24h       51.9%       41.8%       46.9%
 35kt / 24h       51.9%       41.8%       46.9%
 40kt / 24h       51.9%       38.1%       45.0%
 45kt / 36h       43.1%       24.4%       33.8%
 55kt / 36h       27.1%       10.2%       18.6%
 55kt / 48h       24.9%       24.6%       24.8%
 70kt / 48h       12.2%        3.1%        7.7%
 65kt / 72h       23.7%        7.9%       15.8%