Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80     68.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  11.8  10.4  12.6  18.1  18.7  11.9  14.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  51.0  57.0  46.0  39.0  51.0  60.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  27.0  59.0  57.0  30.0  21.0  35.0   4.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  58.0  61.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.6  11.8  10.4  12.6  18.1  18.7  11.9  14.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       27.3%       16.4%       21.8%
 25kt / 24h       39.1%       45.6%       42.3%
 30kt / 24h       38.1%       38.7%       38.4%
 35kt / 24h       38.1%       38.7%       38.4%
 40kt / 24h       38.1%       31.0%       34.5%
 45kt / 36h       40.5%       19.3%       29.9%
 55kt / 36h       20.0%        8.1%       14.0%
 55kt / 48h       20.6%       18.6%       19.6%
 70kt / 48h       10.3%        2.7%        6.5%
 65kt / 72h       12.6%        5.4%        9.0%