Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20     69.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.7  13.6  18.9  18.2  11.8  14.1  16.6  17.5  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  40.0  34.0  39.0  50.0  56.0  54.0  56.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  53.0  39.0  18.0  32.0   2.0  27.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  59.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.7  13.6  18.9  18.2  11.8  14.1  16.6  17.5  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       61.1%       30.2%       45.7%
 25kt / 24h       44.7%       42.5%       43.6%
 30kt / 24h       44.7%       37.8%       41.3%
 35kt / 24h       44.7%       37.8%       41.3%
 40kt / 24h       44.7%       24.6%       34.7%
 45kt / 36h       72.3%       29.2%       50.7%
 55kt / 36h       26.8%       18.6%       22.7%
 55kt / 48h       17.5%       10.4%       14.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%