Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190830 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.80     70.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  18.2  17.9  12.4  13.7  17.2  17.1  12.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  34.0  39.0  51.0  56.0  54.0  55.0  58.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  24.0   9.0  35.0 -13.0  10.0 -14.0  23.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  58.0  59.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.3  18.2  17.9  12.4  13.7  17.2  17.1  12.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       33.4%       20.9%       27.1%
 25kt / 24h       34.7%       36.6%       35.7%
 30kt / 24h       30.2%       33.4%       31.8%
 35kt / 24h       25.5%       33.4%       29.4%
 40kt / 24h       20.4%       17.5%       18.9%
 45kt / 36h       60.0%       22.3%       41.2%
 55kt / 36h       15.2%       13.8%       14.5%
 55kt / 48h       11.2%        7.4%        9.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%