Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30     71.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  19.8  14.7  14.7  18.7  19.8  14.2  15.6  N  N  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  41.0  52.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  53.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  12.0  37.0  -6.0   4.0  -2.0  20.0  35.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  59.0  61.0  59.0  61.0  64.0  65.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.8  19.8  14.7  14.7  18.7  19.8  14.2  15.6  N  N  F  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       40.7%       10.3%       25.5%
 25kt / 24h       20.7%       15.7%       18.2%
 30kt / 24h       20.7%       10.0%       15.4%
 35kt / 24h       19.0%       10.0%       14.5%
 40kt / 24h       19.0%        4.6%       11.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%