Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10     74.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  16.4  18.1  14.0  15.8  15.7  19.4  15.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  56.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  68.0  71.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0   9.0 -12.0  17.0  26.0  28.0  48.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  60.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.4  16.4  18.1  14.0  15.8  15.7  19.4  15.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.5%        4.5%       10.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%        4.9%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%