Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20     74.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  16.6  12.6  12.5  15.7  18.9  15.1  14.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  59.0  62.0  66.0  67.0  72.0  74.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  -2.0  16.0  32.0  15.0  36.0  58.0  30.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  64.0  66.0  63.0  64.0  68.0  68.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  16.6  12.6  12.5  15.7  18.9  15.1  14.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.2%        3.3%        6.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%        4.6%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%