Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.40     75.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  13.8  11.8  15.3  19.4  16.7  15.6  16.5  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  63.0  65.0  70.0  74.0  78.0  78.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  32.0  31.0  12.0  33.0  53.0  27.0   6.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  68.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.6  13.8  11.8  15.3  19.4  16.7  15.6  16.5  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.9%        2.2%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%        3.4%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%